Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 12.968651 15.115342 17.454811 20.186929 23.282910 26.675040 30.665457
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.194040 12.015307 15.394624 19.709352 25.037455 31.364616 39.406229
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 7.081462 10.223967 14.305633 19.920746 27.358255 36.775835 49.490520
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.489089 8.674163 13.121841 19.653267 28.840411 41.118736 58.545002
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.699409 8.026490 12.967329 20.629052 31.950297 47.754392 71.094554
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 3.957940 7.275693 12.494420 21.002780 34.148922 53.229184 82.415558
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.315480 6.540301 11.897587 21.050752 35.787477 57.948710 92.939378
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.806291 5.921658 11.371080 21.096828 37.359331 62.616666 103.650515
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.624508 5.855104 11.749710 22.647532 41.429423 71.354037 121.072787
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.386078 5.631005 11.807238 23.631275 44.622625 78.907997 137.118446
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.169583 5.407123 11.824783 24.525810 47.712909 86.473699 153.619126
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.870881 4.948933 11.324673 24.399305 48.986129 91.102461 165.610255
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.530823 4.336792 10.447350 23.489520 48.837878 93.444971 174.198947
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.261992 3.830264 9.708460 22.756849 48.942517 96.233745 183.752863
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.103045 3.559490 9.433307 22.924672 50.756225 102.145791 199.043483
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.935335 3.223206 8.953778 22.595618 51.555104 106.262349 211.410000
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.873883 3.168169 9.122419 23.685994 55.274097 115.971979 234.302937
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.783317 3.004689 8.999666 24.103200 57.634909 123.260784 253.163346
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.687075 2.798046 8.733893 24.155702 59.227122 129.169826 269.786319
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.603628 2.609345 8.482465 24.207030 60.810188 135.142661 286.828715
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.593716 2.669606 8.911578 25.953162 66.222998 148.958576 319.409205
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.559935 2.636634 9.076656 27.059963 70.295595 160.314683 347.797414
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.525038 2.590553 9.197362 28.065827 74.212841 171.563564 376.494263